FEATURE: Tense relations

For the past 10 years Washington's pursuit of Osama bin Laden drove US Pakistan relations.

However his death in May at the hands of US Special Forces in the Pakistan garrison town of Abbottabad created new tensions in Islamabad's relationship with Washington.

Pakistanis were angered at the abuse of their sovereignty and US congressmen questioned Pakistan's apparent sheltering of the terrorist leader.

Both sides are now reviewing their engagement as the US prepares to start withdrawing from neighbouring Afghanistan. A visiting expert talks about the implications.

Jim Middleton

Last Updated: Tue, 12 Jul 2011 18:14:00 +1000

Dr Farzana Shaikh is associate fellow of the Asia Program at Chatham House, home of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, in London.

JIM MIDDLETON, PRESENTER: How serious is this rift between the United States and Pakistan? It does seem to have got much worse since the death of Osama bin Laden.

FARZANA SHAIKH: Oh things I think at the moment, it's no secret, are really very bad indeed.

And I think you know the big fear is now whether or not this whole carefully crafted relationship, this edifice of this whole carefully crafted relationship might simply come tumbling down.

I think both sides are trying to avoid that but they still haven't managed. And at the moment of course there are simply far too many strains in the relationship for any of us to be very optimistic.

JIM MIDDLETON: Well what's driving this terrible disengagement as it were? Is it simply the internal stresses within Pakistan brought about by the abuse of its sovereignty or is it other things that are going on within the military, the Pakistan military itself?

FARZANA SHAIKH: Well it's a hugely complicated situation. I think in the first instance and most obviously of course there have been the strains that have grown since the killing of Osama bin Laden.

And what that did really was bring to the surface continuing concerns about whether or not Pakistan was a dependable ally.

People of course wanted to know how someone like Osama bin Laden could hide within a stone's throw of a major military academy in Pakistan; who knew that Osama bin Laden was present in Pakistan; and how high up the military and political establishment did this knowledge go?

JIM MIDDLETON: Do you believe that Pakistan has given the Americans any satisfactory explanation about how Osama bin Laden did manage to stay hidden within Pakistan so close to a military garrison for so long?

FARZANA SHAIKH: Well if Pakistan has given some sort of explanation to the United States about how and why Osama bin Laden found himself in Abbottabad, it isn't exactly in the public domain. Great mystery shrouds this whole question.

I think initially the United States of course issued a whole series of statements expressing outrage at this fact.

Since then senior officials in the Obama administration have tried to cool tempers by saying that there isn't any evidence yet that anyone in the Pakistan government or within the top military brass knew about Osama bin Laden's presence in Pakistan.

In fact I think it's fair to say that the military in Pakistan finds itself today in the midst of a crisis that is near unprecedented. I mean we have not seen anything like it.

And by like it I mean the military being called to account in this fashion since 1971 when the country broke up and the military suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of India following a civil war in east Pakistan.

JIM MIDDLETON: Just what's your assessment of the state of democracy and the fragility of the Government within Pakistan at the moment?

FARZANA SHAIKH: I think again it's no secret to say that the ruling People's Party which heads the coalition government in Pakistan is a very weak and fragile government.

Now soon after the killing of Osama bin Laden there were many in Pakistan who felt that this elected government had an opportunity to rein in the military and as it were to stamp civilian supremacy in Pakistan by getting the military to answer some tough questions about the Osama bin Laden affair.

But of course that did not happen and what we've seen since early May to today is really a government led by prime minister Gilani increasingly concerned to impress both upon Pakistanis at home and the international community more broadly that the army and the government are on the same page.

JIM MIDDLETON: One final question: If that is the case and that the government sees its best chance of staying in power by remaining, continuing to cosy up to the military, that would seem to be pretty bad news for Washington. It's not going to be any easier a road in the months ahead for Washington than it has been in the past month or so.

FARZANA SHAIKH: Ultimately of course Washington you know must pay lip service to you know the need for strengthening democratic institutions in Pakistan,
the need to establish civilian supremacy in Pakistan.

But ultimately Washington has a war to deal with. And in order for this war to succeed Washington needs the support of Pakistan's military.

JIM MIDDLETON: Farzana Shaikh, thank you very much.

FARZANA SHAIKH: Thank you Jim.

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